Current Odds On The Presidential Election
Our 2020 forecasts — presidential, Senate, House — are all now officially frozen, meaning we won’t be ingesting any new polls or updating the odds in any race. Instead, follow along on our Election Day Live blog as we track results in real-time. At the end of a loooooong campaign, here’s where we stand: Joe Biden is favored to beat President Trump (though Trump still has a 1-in-10 chance); Democrats have a 3-in-4 shot at taking back the Senate; and the House will most likely remain under Democratic control (Democrats might even expand their majority by a few seats). The big picture is clear: The overall electoral environment favors Democrats, which is one reason they have decent odds of controlling the presidency, Senate and House (a 72 percent chance, according to our forecast). Of course, there’s always the chance of a polling error, which tends to be correlated from state to state when it happens. Trump needs a bigger-than-normal error in his favor, but the real possibility that polls are underestimating Trump’s support is why he still has a path to win reelection. A 10 percent chance of winning is not a zero percent chance. In fact, that is roughly the same odds that it’s raining in downtown Los Angeles. And it does rain there. (Downtown L.A. has about 36 rainy days per year, or about a 1-in-10 shot of a rainy day.)
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- Current Odds On The Presidential Election
- 2020 Election Odds, 2020 Presadent Betting Presidential Election Odds 2021 Live. With the now Live in-PLay the 2021 Election has been the nail biter one would have expected, had it not been for the over ambitious democratic poling.
- Updated every four hours, this is an electoral map based on the then-current PredictIt market odds for the 2020 presidential election. Use the timeline feature to view the map based on the final update each day. Unless the odds are exactly 50%, the toss-up color is not used in this map.
- The next US Presidential Election will take place on Tuesday, Nov. Democratic incumbent Joe Biden, who started his presidency at age 77, will be 81 on Election Day. In a rare occurrence, the incumbent was not favored in the opening election odds.
Election Odds: Second Presidential Debate Props. The first presidential debate was chaos. The second debate was cancelled. The third debate, to be held tomorrow night, October 22, at 9 p.m. ET, will feature a mute button.
- According to our final presidential forecast, Pennsylvania is the most likely tipping-point state, and a lot of Biden’s chances in the Electoral College hinge on what happens in the Keystone State. He leads Trump there by about 5 points in our polling average, but it’s not as large a margin as Biden might like. Last week, we gamed out what would happen if Biden lost Pennsylvania but won other Midwestern states like Wisconsin. (TL;DR there’s no clear Plan B for Biden.) Want to run through your own hypothetical scenarios? You now can with our interactive forecast that lets you explore the ways each candidate could win. We’re hoping to use this tool ourselves on election night to better understand Biden and Trump’s paths to victory, especially if the outstanding vote takes a while to be counted.
- Unless Trump or Biden has a really good night on Nov. 3, it’s pretty unlikely, though, that either of them will hit the 270 electoral votes needed to win by the end of the night. That doesn’t necessarily mean, though, that we won’t have a pretty good idea of who won. It’s all going to come down to how close some of the key battleground races are and whether a representative share of the vote can be reported, which won’t always be possible given the challenges of the pandemic. We’re tracking when we expect results in every state.
7PM
Well, that’s all from us folks.
Unfortunately, this vote doesn’t look like being settled any time soon.
You can find out more on when Paddy Power will be settling the betting markets for the US Election here.
5PM
Biden 1/9, Trump 11/2
And still we wait…
3.30PM
Biden 1/9, Trump 6/1
Biden shortens ever further with Trump narrowly drifting out.
Meanwhile, it seems someone is getting stroppy. Time for a glass of milk and a nap?
STOP THE COUNT!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 5, 2020
2PM
Biden 1/7, Trump 5/1
No changes in the betting in the last 90 minutes, as those key States left continue the counting.
12.30PM
Biden 1/7, Trump 5/1
Biden currently has 243 electoral college votes. Trump has 214. They need 270. It’s the slowest race in history, but we’re getting there. I promise.
11AM
Here’s the latest odds as the wait for a result drags on. And on. And on. And on…
10AM
Biden 1/7, Trump 5/1
I think when this is all over, we’ll look back in disbelief and wonder: ‘Did that really happen?’… Ole Solskjaer as manager and Maguire as captain. Strange times.
9AM
And there you were thinking this would all be over with by the time you woke up…
Anyway, here’s a recap of the market moves overnight on Paddy Power.
2am
Biden 1/16, Trump 13/2
4am
Biden 1/14, Trump 6/1
5.30am
Biden 1/9, 11/2
6.30am
Biden 1/6, 5/1
THROUGH THE NIGHT
You can keep up with latest live odds throughout the night via the handy widgets below.
They’ll update with up-to-minute prices on Trump and Biden to win the election.
11PM
Biden 1/9, Trump 11/2
Not much change in the last hour, with the important Stages of Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania still yet to declare.
10PM
Biden 1/10, Trump 6/1
Big changes in the past hour with Biden now projected to win in Michigan.
Trump won the State back in 2016, but it now looks to be going back to blue.
Enjoy the pres I hope it makes you happy. Dear lord, what a sad little life, Joe. You ruined my night completely so you could have the votes & I hope now you can spend it on lessons in grace & decorum. Because you have all the grace of a reversing dump truck without any tyres on. pic.twitter.com/SfWzWp6rOk
— Paddy Power (@paddypower) November 4, 2020
9PM
Biden 2/9, Trump 7/2
No big change to the markets in the past hour. Still, we might be waiting a while, it seems…
We are winning Pennsylvania big, but the PA Secretary of State just announced that there are “Millions of ballots left to be counted.”
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 4, 2020
8PM
Biden 2/9, Trump 7/2
We appear to be edging closer to a Democrat win, with Biden projected to win Maine.
Over in the US, here is how things are looking #Election2020
Bet here: https://t.co/qejetc23nKpic.twitter.com/UENEYcrxJD
— Paddy Power (@paddypower) November 4, 2020
7PM
Biden 1/3, Trump 9/4
Meanwhile in Instanbul…
'Maguire, Shaw, Matic all out of the equation for Utd and then Demba Ba comes into play.
The numbers not looking good for Ole.' pic.twitter.com/z47qgmXY37
— Paddy Power (@paddypower) November 4, 2020
6PM
Biden 1/6, Trump 4/1
And still we wait for a verdict.
Some people are getting rather restless…
They are finding Biden votes all over the place — in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. So bad for our Country!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 4, 2020
5PM
Biden 2/9, Trump 10/3
Dragging it out a bit, aren’t they? Have seen Champions League draws finish quicker than this.
Here’s all the latest odds on the remaining key States yet to declare their results.
4PM
Biden 1/5, Trump 7/2
No huge shifts in the past hour, as America wakes up and digests the news that… it’s still not over.
We feel your, pain.
3PM
Biden 1/6, Trump 4/1
Biden gets shorter, and Trump doubles in price as Biden takes a lead in Michigan. And that’s the bottom line…
Joe Biden has just moved ahead in Michigan. #USElection2020pic.twitter.com/5IjOZGMxmr
— Paddy Power (@paddypower) November 4, 2020
2PM
Biden 4/11, Trump 2/1
Trump has shortened slightly in the last hour, but it’s still looking likely for a Democrat victory.
1PM
Here’s a look at some of the remaining key States yet to reveal who has won – and what the odds are for victory.
WISCONSIN
GEORGIA
PENNSYLVANIA
MICHIGAN
12PM
Biden 1/4 (80%), Trump 3/1 (25%)
Biden has shortened hugely to become a big odds-on favourite to become the new President.
11AM: BIDEN NOW FAVOURITE (AGAIN)
Biden 8/13 (61.9%), Trump 5/4 (44.4%)
For the first time in nine hours, Biden is now favourite to win the election
10AM: BIDEN NOW EVENS
Biden has been slowly getting shorter and shorter in the betting in the past few hours – and is now at even-money to beat Trump.
Our red-capped friend remains odds-on at around 4/5 but that’s a huge dip on the 1/5 he was in the early hours of this morning.
9AM
Biden 7/5 (41.7%), Trump 4/11 (73.3%)
8AM
Biden 7/4 (36.4%), Trump 1/2 (66.7%)
If you are just getting up, you've missed an eventful night.
Here is the current state of play in the #Election2020
Bet here: https://t.co/qejetc23nKpic.twitter.com/nDCITa5g0Y
— Paddy Power (@paddypower) November 4, 2020
7AM
Biden 17/10 (37%), Trump 4/9 (69.2%)
6AM
Biden 6/5 (45.5%), Trump 4/6 (60%)
5AM
Biden 11/8 (42.1%), Trump 4/7 (63.6%)
It's getting a bit closer in the betting now, but Trump is still the favourite with the election due to come down to a few states #Elections2020
Michigan:
Democrats 8/11
Republicans EVS
Pennsylvania:
Democrats: 5/6
Republicans 5/6
Bet here: https://t.co/qejetc23nKpic.twitter.com/CW3CwF14AG
— Paddy Power (@paddypower) November 4, 2020
4AM
Biden 12/5 (29.4%), Trump 1/3 (75%)
3AM: TRUMP NOW FAVOURITE
For the first time since pre-COVID, Trump has become favourite in Paddy Power’s betting market.
Biden 12/5 (29.4%), Trump 1/5 (83.3%)
Who Will Win The Presidential Election 2019
2AM
Biden 4/6 (60%), Trump 6/5 (45.5%)
1AM
Odds On The Presidential Election In Vegas
Biden 4/5 (55.6%), Trump 10/11 (52.4%)
12AM: TRUMP SHORTENS IN PRICE
The first polls have closed across the pond, and Trump’s odds have shortened.
Biden 1/2 (66.7%), Trump EVS (50%)
Current Vegas Odds On The Presidential Election
11PM, Tuesday
Biden 2/5 (71.4%), Trump 15/8 (34.8%)
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widget, while in-copy odds are accurate at time of publication but subject to change
What Are The Odds On The Presidential Election
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